South India is the only bastion which is not fully conquered by the saffron brigade in Lok Sabha elections. The region, comprising five states and two Union territories, is a battleground where non-BJP parties hold sway. While regional parties have an upper hand in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu, BJP and Congress are fighting it out in Karnataka. In Kerala, the battle is between the CPM-led LDF (Left Democratic Front) and Congress-led UDF (United Democratic Front).
Of the 131 Lok Sabha seats in South India, NDA won 39 seats in the 2014 elections, UPA 24, Left parties 8 and others 60. This is the only belt in India where Rahul Gandhi leads in popularity over Narendra Modi, according to opinion polls.
It is felt that the Congress and UPA would improve their position in South India in the coming Lok Sabha elections. In case the Congress-DMK alliance in Tamil Nadu betters its tally, that would have a major impact on the national scene.
Andhra: A divided state
Earlier, Andhra Pradesh enjoyed the honour of being the state having the largest number of Lok Sabha seats in the south – 42. Andhra also sent the third highest number of MPs to the Lower House of Parliament in India. But the bifurcation of the state led to a drastic fall in the Lok Sabha seats, which stand at 25 at present. Meanwhile, Telangana, which was carved out of Andhra Pradesh, has 17 Lok Sabha seats.
Congress became the single-largest party in the country after the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha polls, thanks to its excellent show in united Andhra Pradesh. While the party’s tally was 29 in the 2004 general elections, it was 33 five years later. However, the Congress lost its ground following the division of Andhra Pradesh and drew a blank in the 2014 elections.
The TDP, which was in the opposition for 10 years, returned to power in the assembly polls held along with the Parliament elections. The TDP and BJP had formed an alliance and won 17 Lok Sabha seats with a vote share of 45.88 per cent. The traditional votes of the Congress went to YSR Congress of Y S Jaganmohan Reddy which won 8 seats and 43.68 per cent votes. Congress secured a mere 2.73 per cent votes. The party polled over one lakh votes in only two seats – Vizianagaram and Kurnool.
Jaganmohan leads in surveys
The main poll issue this time is the denial of special status to Andhra, which was a poll promise of the Central government. The state is in the grip of a severe financial crisis and the Chandrababu Naidu government is facing an anti-incumbency wave. All pre-poll surveys predict an upper hand for the YSR Congress.
Meanwhile, the Congress party is engaged in a vigorous drive to give itself a fresh lease of life. AICC general secretary Oommen Chandy is leading the party’s activities in the state. Jaganmohan Reddy, who is taking out a statewide campaign on foot, is expected to reap rich dividends. All major parties – BJP, Congress, TDP and YSR Congress – are fighting it out alone in the state. The Janasena Party of actor Pawan Kalyan has entered into an alliance with the Left parties.
Results of the Andhra polls are also expected to have a major impact on the power equation in Delhi.
Congress, TRS fight it out in Telangana
The TRS had secured two-thirds majority in the assembly elections held a few months ago in Telangana. Contesting alone, the party had defeated the Congress-TDP alliance. With the tie-up failing to produce results, Congress and TDP are expected to try their luck independently this time. Fighting jointly, TDP and BJP had secured two seats in 2014; but under the changed conditions, both parties may contest on their own.
The main battle in Telangana will be between TRS and Congress and the former would have a good haul of Lok Sabha seats if it could repeat the performance in the assembly polls. But the Congress views Lok Sabha and assembly polls differently. The BJP is also looking at improving its tally. The AIMIM (All India Majlis-e Ittihadul Muslimeen) will in all probability repeat the show in its stronghold.
TRS had a vote share of 46.9 per cent in the assembly polls, which was an improvement of 9.33 per cent over its Lok Sabha share. Meanwhile, Congress polled 1.88 per cent votes more. In the Parliament elections, the party had 26.52 per cent vote share.
Chief minister K Chandrasekhara Rao, Congress president Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi will lead the election campaigns in Telangana.
TN without Karunanidhi and Jaya
Of the total 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, AIADMK won a whopping 37 in the 2014 polls. PMK and BJP emerged victorious in one seat each. All others got nothing. While PMK leader Anbumany Ramdas won Dharmapuri, BJP leader Pon Radhakrishnan secured Kanyakumari.
The main feature of the upcoming polls is the absence of former chief ministers M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalithaa. After Jayalalithaa’s demise, AIADMK faced a split and T T V Dhinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam is expected to win over some AIADMK supporters. In the assembly bypoll held at R K Nagar, which Jayalalithaa had represented, Dhinakaran registered a victory with a margin of over 40,000 votes.
During the previous elections, Congress and DMK had contested separately. But they have announced an alliance in the coming polls. Meanwhile, leading actor Kamal Haasan launched a new party, Makkal Neethi Mayyam, but he has not revealed any plan for a tie-up.
AIADMK will be in the fray jointly with PMK and BJP. However, the front faces a big challenge as the Central government’s move to introduce reservations for economically backward people among the forward castes has evoked a hostile reaction in Tamil Nadu.
In the previous elections, AIADMK had a vote share of 44.92 per cent, BJP 5.56 per cent, DMK 23.91 per cent and Congress 4.37 per cent. Meanwhile, pre-poll surveys forecast a good show by DMK-Congress alliance.
JD–Cong tie-up crucial in Karnataka
Karnataka is the lone state in South India where Congress and BJP are engaged in a direct contest. Of the 28 seats here, 17 were won by the BJP in 2014. Congress secured nine and Janata Dal (S) two.
In last year’s Assembly polls, BJP emerged as the largest party, but the second largest party Congress extended support to Janata Dal, which had finished third, to form the government. However, it remains to be seen if the Congress-Janata Dal alliance would be in place during the Lok Sabha elections. Meanwhile, Janata Dal has placed a demand for 12 seats with the Congress.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress chief Rahul Gandhi will be leading the campaigns in Karnataka. With the only southern state where the BJP has some chance, the party hopes to win the maximum number of seats from Karnataka. During the 2014 polls, it was from Karnataka that Congress sent the most number of MPs to the Lok Sabha. The party’s strategy for the state is being thrashed out by AICC general secretary and Malayali K C Venugopal.
Even though the BJP’s efforts to influence MLAs of the ruling parties in Karnataka have not succeeded, it hopes to bring down the government soon. The Congress and Janata Dal are working towards holding the alliance together till at least the Lok Sabha elections.
What worries the BJP in Karnataka is the waning popularity of Modi, particularly among the urban middle-class voters. Meanwhile, the Congress and Janata Dal are hoping to cash in on the loan waivers announced for farmers by Kumaraswamy government.
What's in store for Kerala
Of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala, UDF won 12 in 2014 while the rest went to LDF. However, it was BJP’s O Rajagopal who finished second in Thiruvananthapuram. BJP’s vote share was 10.45 per cent.
Kerala is now the only place in the country where the Left parties have a significant strength. It is also the lone state from where they hope to send MPs to Lok Sabha in the upcoming polls. Of the 12 Left MPs in the 16th Lok Sabha, eight were from Kerala, while there were two MPs each from West Bengal and Tripura. This time, the Left’s chances in Bengal and Tripura are minute.
Local issues such as the entry of young women to the Sabarimala temple are expected to influence the poll outcome in Kerala. All three fronts hope to gain from these developments. But with 45 per cent of the electorate belonging to minority communities, their preference would be the Congress, which they feel is the alternative to the BJP at the national level, say political observers.
All the pre-poll surveys too predict an upper hand for the UDF.
Lakshadweep and Puducherry
The Union territories of Lakshadweep and Puducherry have one Lok Sabha seat each and the Congress has high hopes at both places. Even though traditional Congress strongholds, the party had lost the seats in 2014. While in Lakshadweep, sitting MP Hamdulla Syed of the Congress was defeated by P P Muhammed Faizal of NCP by 1,535 votes, it was N Radhakrishnan of N R Congress who had won in Puducherry. The losing candidate of the Congress was the present Puducherry chief minister V Narayanaswami.
Read more: Latest on LS polls