Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala capital’s politics is a puzzle for the most analytical mind. Consider these:
• The BJP had its largest vote share in the Thiruvananthapuram district in the recent elections to the local self-government bodies.
• The Left Democratic Front scored big in all levels of the local body elections.
• United Democratic Front candidate Shashi Tharoor successfully overcame the BJP challenge in the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha election, while fellow party leader Adoor Prakash put an end to years of LDF domination in the neighbouring Attingal constituency.
All three political alliances have their place in the district.
Three-cornered contests are the new reality in Thiruvananthapuram. If the BJP won more than 20 per cent votes in 35 local bodies, eight of them are in the southern district. Yet the BJP could not replace the LDF or the UDF anywhere. The BJP can still play spoilsport in some constituencies.
Ernakulam and Thiruvananthapuram share the most assembly constituencies after Malappuram’s 16 seats. Both urban districts have 14 seats each. Ernakulam is anyway aligned in favour of the UDF.
That makes Thiruvananthapuram all the more important. Whoever commands the district has more chances of forming the government. That is a historical trend – You win Thiruvananthapuram, you win Kerala.
The LDF currently commands 10 of the 14 seats. The UDF has Thiruvananthapuram, Aruvikkara and Kovalam while the BJP represents Nemom, the only seat it had ever won in the Kerala legislative assembly.
Thiruvananthapuram and Neyyattinkara witness a rerun of the same fight they witnessed in 2016. The UDF has fielded rookie candidates in nine of the remaining seats, creating a sort of milestone in the Congress-led formation’s history in the district. The UDF expects the debutants to improve its performance in the district. The front expects to retain three sitting seats and expects the youngsters to win back some of the other seats.
The Congress is contesting in 13 seats and its ally RSP in one seat – Attingal.
The influx of debutant candidates has created uncertainties for the political rivals too. Their strengths and weaknesses are difficult to gauge as they are not tested like the veterans.
In contrast, the LDF candidate list is full of tested warhorses. Seasoned politicians lead the charge in 11 seats. Nine of them are serving legislators. They expect to retain their seats by highlighting the development activities in Thiruvananthapuram under the Pinarayi Vijayan government.
Except Dewaswom Minister Kadakampally Surendran in Kazhakkoottam, all CPM MLAs are facing their second electoral battle. The CPI has put up candidates in Nedumangad and Chirayinkeezhu while Janata Dal(S) is in Kovalam. The rest of the seats are with the CPM.
The BJP’s candidate list in Thiruvananthapuram district has too many known faces – Kummanam Rajasekharan in Nemom, Shobha Surendran in Kazhakkoottam, P K Krishna Das in Kattakkada and state general secretary P Sudheer in Attingal.
Kummanam has opted to stay away from the no-holds-barred campaign witnessed in the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha election and the Vattiyoorkkavu assembly election. Some people think that the silent strategy is a deliberate attempt to keep rivals in low gear too.
The NDA is a significant player in Thiruvananthapuram, Vattiyoorkavu, Nedumangad, Aruvikkara, Parassala and Varkala constituencies.
A quick tour of the assembly segments
Vattiyoorkavu - CPM candidate P K Prashanth, who transformed from “Mayor Bro” to challenger MLA, faces UDF’s Veena S Nair and BJP’s V V Rajesh.
Thiruvananthapuram - UDF’s sitting MLA, V S Sivakumar, boasts of personal connections in the constituency which comprises the capital city and coastal areas. LDF candidate Antony Raju expects to win the seat if he can tap into the support base of the alliance. BJP has fielded telly actor G Krishna Kumar.
Nemom - Congress leader K Muraleedharan’s entry to the poll scene in Nemom has energised Congress workers throughout the district. LDF candidate V Sivan Kutty says the confirmed votes of the alliance is enough to make a lead. BJP’s Kummanam is trying hard to retain the only seat of the party.
Kazhakkoottam – Minister Kadakampally Surendran is facing BJP’s Shobha Surendran. The UDF has fielded Professional Congress state president Dr S S Lal with an eye on its core support base and the new voters.
Nedumangad – CPI candidate G R Anil is facing his debut election. So is Congress candidate P S Prasanth. The 38,000 votes the BJP won last time in the seat could be decisive this time. J R Padmakumar is the BJP candidate in Nedumangad.
Vamanapuram – CPM’s popular MLA D K Murali is faced with Congress leader Anad Jayan, the opposition leader in the district panchayat. Swing votes play a larger role in the constituency when both candidates appeal to a wider base.
Chirayinkeezhu – CPI candidate V Shashi, the deputy speaker, is out to guard the LDF stronghold, while Youth Congress leader B S Anup expects to make inroads.
Varkala – Sitting MLA V Joy expects to guard the CPM seat, while the Congress has put up B R M Sharief, a familiar face due to his efforts to represent the party in television debates. BDJS candidate S R M Aji, who won about 20,000 votes in 2016, can be key to the results.
Attingal – O S Ambika is trying to retain the CPM monopoly over the constituency. Her rival is A Sreedharan who switched over from the CPI to the RSP. The BJP has a stake in the game too, represented by state general secretary P Sudheer.
Aruvikkara – Congress sitting MLA K S Sabarinathan has developed his own standing in the constituency which had been associated with his late father G Karthikeyan. The CPM has deputed G Stephen to storm the assembly segment. BJP state secretary C Sivan Kutty is preparing for a good show too.
Parassala – Sitting MLA C K Hareendran faces Congress candidate Ann Sajitha Russell, president of the district panchayat. The BJP is a formidable force in the constituency. BJP candidate Karamana Jayan, the party’s former district president, had won 33,000 votes in 2016. Communal undercurrents are strong in this constituency.
Neyyattinkara – The Congress has fallen back on old guard R Selvaraj in Neyyattinkara even as it liberally picked from the young talent pool elsewhere. Selvaraj has a difficult mission to claim the seat back from CPM’s K Ansalan. The Nadar community is a decisive factor in the constituency. NDA candidate Chenkal Rajasekharan Nair’s campaign has become popular for the presence of his wife, actor Radha.
Kattakkada – CPM’s I B Satheesh and Congress candidate Malayinkeezh Venugopal fight it out in the constituency. Satheesh won by 849 votes in 2016. BJP veteran P K Krishna Das makes the fight more interesting.
Kovalam – Sitting MLA M Vincent faces a seasoned opponent in A Neelalohithadas. Vincent has nurtured personal connections throughout the constituency that gives him a boy-next-door image. NDA candidate Vishnupuram Chandrasekharan belongs to BJP ally Kerala Kamaraj Congress but contests under BJP’s election symbol of lotus.