Let us assume a student of politics is trying to decipher the recent electoral trends in the Thiruvananthapuram district. In all probability, he would begin scratching his head in sheer frustration and then would quit trying to understand such wild voter behaviour.
Unlike in other districts, there have been crazy swings in voter preferences for Lok Sabha, Assembly and local body polls in Thiruvananthapuram.
Lok Sabha: Tharoor factor
Despite the massive surge in BJP support that coincided with the rise of Narendra Modi, Congress's Shashi Tharoor has remained an overwhelming favourite in Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency, which has within its fold seven Assembly constituencies. The Left is a distant third, an also-ran. In the last decade, the Left has grown in insignificance.
But in nearby Attingal – under which falls the other half of the district, the seven suburban Assembly constituencies – the voters seem more disposed to the Left. Though it is now represented by Congress's Adoor Prakash and was earlier represented by Congress stalwarts like Vayalar Ravi, A A Rahim and Thalekkunnil Basheer, it was CPM candidates like Varkala Radhakrishnan and A Sampath who had dominated the poll scene.
The BJP is still not a serious threat to the two major fronts in these sub-urban areas but has gained enough strength to spoil the party of either of the fronts.
Assembly: Fifty-fifty
The Assembly contests generally threw up almost equal results with the UDF having a slight edge. However, in 2006 and 2016, the LDF had secured 9 of the 14 seats in the district; after V K Prasanth won the Vattiyoorkavu bypoll, the LDF holds 10 of the 14 constituencies in the district.
If in 2006 there was a V S Achuthanandan wave, the LDF gained in 2016 because of a massive shift of UDF votes to the BJP. The BJP made history by winning Nemom, its first Assembly seat in Kerala. It came second in Vattiyoorkavu and Kazhakoottam and the NDA alliance dramatically improved its performance in constituencies like Varkala, Kattakkada and Nedumangad where the UDF candidates lost by small margins.
Local bodies: Turn Left
However, in local body polls, the LDF always had the upper hand, and the UDF a distant 'blink and you miss' flash. In 2020, the LDF secured an absolute majority in Thiruvananthapuram corporation, retained power in the district panchayat, rules all four municipalities (Attingal, Nedumangad, Neyyattinkara and Varkala) and had thorough dominance in gram and block panchayats.
The BJP did not wane in strength in corporation areas, in the wards within Nemom constituency it had even improved considerably, but its progress was stalled by a huge movement of traditional Congress votes to the LDF.
Curious case of BJP's under-performance
The BJP's situation in the district is curious. It has amassed more supporters in the district than in any other part of Kerala but has still not been able to achieve a major political breakthrough in the district, except winning a lone Assembly seat.
The possibility of a BJP win is restricted to three urban Assembly constituencies of the district: Nemom, Kazhakuttam and Vattiyoorkavu. Thiruvananthapuram is another urban constituency where in 2016 the BJP candidate, cricketer S Sreesanth, secured nearly 35,000 votes but no one expects the BJP to even come second because nearly half the constituency is made up of coastal areas where the BJP's influence is relatively low.
However, in suburban areas like Varkala, Kattakkada, Nedumangad, the BJP can upset the chances of either UDF or LDF. In 2016, candidates of BJP's ally Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), the political wing of the SNDP, had eaten into the votes of UDF candidates in Varkala and Nedumangad and BJP's P K Krishnadas's sterling performance ate more into the votes of the UDF leading to CPM candidate I B Satheesh's victory by 849 votes, the lowest in the district.
The BJP had also used BDJS to make up for its lack of influence in coastal areas like Kovalam. Its candidate T N Suresh secured over 30 per cent of votes in 2016, tearing away a large pie of voters from the Janata Dal candidate and sitting MLA Jameela Prakasham. Congress's M Vincent scraped through by a margin of 2,615 votes.
Nonetheless, after 2016, the BDJS has become a vague presence in the NDA alliance.
Here is a brief low-down on the pre-election scene in the 14 constituencies in Thiruvananthapuram district.
Nemom
This perhaps will be the only constituency in the district where the contest will be between the CPM and the BJP. The Congress, which once lorded over the constituency cornering 50 per cent of the votes, had left it to a minor ally, Social Janata (Democratic) Party, since 2011. Thereafter, UDF candidates polled less than 20 per cent of the votes. Traditional UDF votes went mostly to the BJP.
The CPM has announced as its candidate V Sivankutty, the former Thiruvananthapuram mayor who was beaten by O Rajagopal in 2016 to make BJP history.
The BJP is expected to field Kummanam Rajasekharan, its most loved leader in the district, to retain the seat. The UDF, fearing a strong Congress candidate would split votes to the CPM's advantage, is expected to leave the constituency for a minor ally.
Kovalam
The constituency, now held by Congress's M Vincent, has oscillated between the UDF and the LDF. Vincent's likeability and performance could work to the UDF's advantage.
The absence of influential Nadar leaders like A Neelalohithadasan Nadar, of Janata Dal (Secular), will also be a drag on the LDF. The waning influence of BDJS in the NDA alliance could also keep unstable Congress votes intact.
Nonetheless, the surprisingly poor showing of Congress candidates in coastal areas around Kovalam introduces an 'X' factor into the contest.
Thiruvananthapuram
It was cricketer Sreesanth's commendable performance as a BJP candidate that allowed Congress's V S Sivakumar to hold on to the seat for a second time.
His vote share had declined from 45.87 per cent in 2011 to 36.82 per cent, a nearly 10 per cent drop. Still, if he managed to beat LDF's Antony Raju by a margin of 10,905 votes, it was only because Sreesanth swallowed up a larger portion of Raju's votes; the difference between Raju and Sreesanth was just 805 votes. And the LDF vote share fell from 40.87 per cent to 28.18 per cent. Sreesanth's celebrity status worked big time and made up for BJP's lack of support in minority-dominated coastal areas of the constituency.
This time, the BJP is not expected to field a candidate as promising as Sreesanth and, therefore, it will be a tight fight for Sivakumar. Once again, Antony Raju will be his LDF rival.
Varkala
It was an upset win for CPM's V Joy in 2016. He trumped hat-trick holder Varkala Kahar by a margin of 2386 votes.
It was BDJS candidate Aji S R M who spoiled his party. While in 2011, the BJP candidate could secure just 3 per cent of the votes, Aji secured 15.50 per cent of the votes, drawing mostly Kahar's votes. His vote percentage fell by a sharp 12.83 per cent.
If the results of the local body polls are any indication, the BJP-led NDA has dramatically improved its influence in Varkala. From just three seats in the Varkala municipality in 2015, its number rose to 11 in 2020. LDF's fell from 18 to 12 and UDF's from 11 to seven.
V Joy is a popular MLA and the CPM has fielded him once more. Kahar would probably return as the Congress candidate. Given that the NDA had eaten more into the LDF votes during the local body polls, a strong NDA candidate can be a greater worry for Joy.
Attingal
The constituency has mostly been a CPM bastion though Vakkom Purushothaman and Saratchandra Prasad of the Congress had represented it. CPM's B Sathyan had retained the seat in 2016 by a margin of 40,383, the highest in the district. Still, his vote percentage had fallen marginally by nearly three per cent.
The UDF had handed over the seat to the RSP in 2016, and in 2021, too, it will be an RSP representative as the UDF candidate. Though the BJP has improved its vote share by 16 per cent in 2016 and had fared well in the Attingal municipality polls, no one expects the party to perform any miracles. The UDF strength, however, is waning considerably. It came third behind the BJP in the local body polls.
The CPM is confident of a victory and has replaced Sathyan with a new face, O S Ambika, one of CPM's 12 women candidates.
Chirayinkeezhu
The constituency has been a CPI bastion. Deputy Speaker V Sasi had won consecutively from Chirayinkeezhu. Since the BJP is not a major force in these coastal and suburban areas, it is mainly a two-way fight between the UDF and the LDF with the scales weighing heavily in favour of the LDF.
In the recently concluded local body polls, the UDF could secure just one of the 13 block divisions. The rest voted overwhelmingly in favour of the LDF. The BJP was nowhere in the picture.
Nedumangad
This is another constituency where the Congress chances were spoiled by a resurgent BJP in 2016. The constituency, with a large coastal area, has generally favoured CPI candidates. However, Congress candidate Palode Ravi had managed to hold on to the constituency thrice. But in 2016, he lost to CPI's C Divakaran by a margin of 3621 votes.
Clearly, it was BJP candidate V V Rajesh's drawing power that did him in. While Rajesh's vote share went up by 18.44 per cent, Ravi's fell by 12.11 per cent. Divakaran's fell by only 5.68 per cent, an indication that the BJP candidate stole more of Congress votes than CPI's.
The BJP surge in 2016 was also surprising, as it improved its share from just 4.78 per cent in 2011 to 23.22 per cent in 2016.
However, the massive victory scored by the LDF in the Nedumangad Municipality polls (it won 27 of the 39 wards) suggests that both the UDF and the BJP has some catching up to do.
Vamanapuram
This working-class constituency in the northeast corner of the district has almost always favoured a CPM candidate. Just once it had voted for Congress, in 1970 when the Congress was in alliance with the CPI.
CPM's D K Murali, who won last time with a majority of nearly 10,000 votes, will contest once more. He had replaced CPM veteran Koliyacode Krishnan Nair, a strong Pinarayi loyalist. Being largely a rural area, the BJP is not a major presence here.
This time, the UDF hopes the alleged involvement of Murali's son in the twin murders of DYFI functionaries in Venjaramoodu would push Murali to the corner. Murali has brushed aside such charges.
In the 2020 local body polls, the Congress had lost badly, managing to secure just one seat in the Vamanapuram block panchayat.
Kazhakuttam
This part of the district, where undeveloped coastal areas exist alongside the upmarket IT hub of the district, has generally favoured the UDF. CPM's Kadakampally Surendran was the exception. He won twice, in 1996 and 2016.
In 2016, his victory was facilitated by the stupendous performance of BJP's V Muraleedharan who gobbled up 31.90 per cent of the votes, pushing the UDF candidate and three-time winner M A Vaheed to third place. In 2011, the BJP candidate, Padmakumar, could secure just 6.86 per cent votes.
Kadakampally Surendran, however, was untouched by the BJP's rise. He still managed to improve his vote share by 2.18 per cent. The BJP's surge in 2016 has virtually transformed Kazhakuttam into a two-way fight between the CPM and the BJP.
In the 2020 local body polls, the LDF further established its dominance. It won 10 of the 16 corporation wards that came under the Kazhakuttom constituency. In 2015, it had just six.
Surendran will be CPM's candidate, and pitted against him would be a BJP stalwart. If not his 2016 rival V Muraleedharan, it could be film actor Suresh Gopi.
Vattiyoorkavu
A Congress bastion, this was wrested by CPM's young mayor V K Prasanth in the 2019 Assembly bypolls. Prasanth will be contesting once more.
Here, the BJP has huge influence as some of the most vibrant RSS shakhas are in this constituency. Further, the place also has active Nair Service Society (NSS) 'karayogams'.
It is widely believed that the open stand taken by the NSS to vote for a Nair candidate was so repulsive that even traditional Congress voters in the Nair community voted for Prasanth. This time, the NSS is silent but not equidistant. Its leadership had made its anger towards the LDF known.
During the bypolls, the infighting in the BJP was also intense, pushing its candidate S Suresh to an embarrassing third. In 2016, BJP's Kummanam had secured a commendable second position, cornering 32.19 per cent of the votes and pushing CPM's T N Seema to the third position.
However, in the 2020 local body polls, the LDF secured 11 of the 19 wards that fall under Vattiyoorkavu. The BJP had lost heavily.
Given the high middle class, mostly Hindus, ethos of the constituency, both the Congress and the BJP are expected to field their finest candidates.
Aruvikkara
The constituency has stood by G Karthikeyan's family. His son, K Sabarinathan, has already won twice from the constituency, first in the 2015 bypolls necessitated by the death of his father and then in 2016 when he bettered his 2015 performance and amassed 50 per cent of the total votes polled.
The BJP has influence but not enough to trump either of the two fronts. Even O Rajagopal, though he secured nearly 25 per cent votes in the 2015 bypolls, could not make much of a dent. In 2016, though filmmaker Rajasenan was fielded, the BJP influence waned.
CPM has fielded G Stephen, its Kattakkada area committee president, as its candidate though party cadres were asking for V K Madhu, former Thiruvananthapuram district panchayat president. Even CPM insiders know only a hugely popular candidate can give Sabarinathan a fight.
Parassala
The constituency, with a strong Nadar presence, has swayed between the UDF and the LDF. It is now held by CPM's Hareendran, who had wrested it from Congress's A T George. CPM is fielding Hareendran once again.
This is also a constituency where the BJP is gradually but steadily increasing its influence. The sudden swell of votes in favour of the BJP candidate, Jayachandran Nair, in 2016 was one of the reasons that felled A T George. While Jayachandran's vote share increased by 13.28 per cent, George's fell by almost the same amount, 12.14 per cent. The CPM candidate lost virtually no votes.
This is a sign that the BJP is eating into the Congress votes in Parassala. This time, the LDF government's decision to include Nadar Christians in the OBC list is expected to sway Nadar votes, as traditional Congress vote bank, to the LDF.
Kattakkada
The constituency saw a giant slayed by a first-timer. The then deputy speaker and the seemingly invincible, N Sakthan lost to CPM debutant I B Satheesh for a wafer-thin margin of 849 votes.
Evidently, the 38,700 votes or 27 per cent of the votes secured by BJP's PK Krishnadas made the difference. Sakthan, who had in 2011, secured 45 per cent of the votes could manage only 35 per cent in 2016.
Krishnadas who had been carefully improving his performance will most probably be the BJP candidate. I B Satheesh is CPM's candidate. Though he won by a whisker, Satheesh had made his presence felt in the constituency in a big way. With Sakthan reduced to a weak presence and the BJP whittling away at the sides of its influence, the UDF will find it hard to wrest the seat back.
The LDF had also swept the local body polls in the area. It snatched Malayinkeezhu, Maranalloor and Pallichal panchayats from the UDF while retaining Kattakkada and Vilavoorkkal.
Neyyattinkara
This is a constituency where the BJP has not been able to ruffle even a leaf. The only time it managed to make some impression was when its man for all seasons, O Rajagopal, contested the 2012 byelections. He came only third, but to the surprise of pundits, he secured 23.21 per cent of the votes polled. When he was out of the picture in 2016, the BJP votes fell to its usual low level.
Neyyattinkara, like many other suburban constituencies in the district, never had a fixed choice; it shifted between the UDF and the LDF.
The results of 2020 local body polls once again reflect Neyyatinkara's unpredictability. Though the LDF was the single largest party, the UDF vastly improved its seats in the municipality from 11 to 17. The LDF saw its seats fall from 22 to 18.
The CPM has picked Ansalan to contest once again.