In graphs: How LDF's Mani C Kappan got the numbers right in Pala assembly bypoll

_{Mani C Kappan’s victory in Pala bypoll is a reprieve for the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) government after an electoral drubbing in the Lok Sabha polls.After 54 years, the late Kerala Congress supremo K M Mani’s home turf has been wrested by another Mani from the LDF.}

_{This is how the Pala electorate, so far considered a United Democratic Front (UDF) bastion, dumped K M Mani’s legacy in one stroke.}

_{Vote share}

_{Mani C Kappan of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is a known figure in Pala. He contested three elections against K M Mani and reduced the victory margin to 4,703 votes in the 2016 Assembly election.}

_{Kappan needed just a little over 2,000 votes to change the political equation and going by the results he managed to do much more than that. Kappan won by 2,943 votes.}

_{In 2016, LDF got 54,181 votes and on Friday Kappan’s share stood at 54,137, which is actually 44 votes lesser.}

_{The UDF polled 7,690 votes lesser than its 2016 share. Undoubtedly, the UDF suffered the biggest setback in an election without K M Mani or his party symbol ‘Two Leaves.’}

_{The BJP vote share also declined by 6,777 votes in Pala. However, it would be wrong to assume that all those votes went to Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).}

_{The catch here is that the overall voter turnout was much less than in 2016 or 2011 elections. That is why there is a decrease in the vote share of all parties.}

_{With a polling percentage of 71.43 per cent in 2019, the was a drop of 11,836 voters compared to 2016.}

_{The LDF's victory was in consolidating and maintaining the votes it secured over the past 15 years.}

_{Ground work}

_{Friday’s results proved that several KC(M) bastions in Pala crumbled mainly due to the lack of ground work.}

_{The UDF got lesser votes even in Pala municipality, considered to be a bastion of KC(M).}

_{From 6,426 votes in 2016, the UDF share slumped to 5,234. The LDF, which got 5,592 votes in 2016, increased its votes to 5,947.}

_{Apart from Thalanadu and Thappalam panchayats, which the LDF had won in 2016 too, it gained vote share in Ramapuram, Kadanadu, Melukavu, Moonnilavu, Bharananganam and Karoor panchayats.}

_{Karoor gave the biggest blow for UDF, as its vote share in the panchayat came down from 6,383 in 2016 to a 2,270.}

_{The LDF increased got 268 more votes in Karoor than in 2016.}

_{KC(M) retained its lead in Mutholy, Meenachil, Kozhuvanal and Elikullam panchayats.}

_{However, only in Meenachil did it get more votes than its 2016 share. UDF candidate Jose Tom is a former panchayat member of Meenachil.}

_{It is evident that KC( M) was overconfident. It was relying heavily on the sympathy wave following K M Mani’s demise.}

_{It was also hoping to ride on the UDF wave which reflected in Thomas Chazhikadan's win in Kottayam constituency in the Lok Sabha polls.}

_{The UDF hoped that the electorate would rally around K M Mani’s family.}

_{Chazhikadan had won by a margin of over a lakh votes against CPM candidate V N Vasavan in an election held just 13 days after K M Mani’s death.}

_{Even though Jose Tom’s candidature was finalised by a committee headed by Chazhikadan himself, the sympathy factor did not work out.}

_{The bitter infighting between Jose K Mani and P J Joseph factions also added to its woes.}

_{The LDF also did not have to dilly-dally on its candidate and this gave Kappan a head start. He made the most of it.}

_{The CPM machinery also ensured that Kappan's campaign reached every nook and corner of Pala constituency.}